# ✅ Checkpoint: Choosing Under Uncertainty

By Better Wise



## Quiz

1. Maya is choosing between a retainer client and a product launch. Which comparison correctly measures the opportunity cost of taking the retainer?
   - The value of the best alternative she gives up by taking the retainer, such as the launch she cannot ship.
   - The total cash the retainer pays, since that is what she gains.
   - The value of the ideal version of the retainer, assuming everything goes perfectly.
   - The value of doing nothing, since staying put costs her nothing.
2. Which of these are table defects described in the lesson? Select all that apply.
   - Score precision theater, such as 4.37 out of 5 implying measurement you do not have.
   - Weight laundering: adjusting weights after seeing which option wins.
   - Blank cost cells that silently read as zero.
   - Dropping a row where every option scores the same.
   - Including the status quo as a scored column.
3. In a comparison table, weights are your preferences about what matters, while scores should be backed by ____ wherever a fact exists.
4. A team says, "We have already put two years into this tool, so we should keep going." Which bias is driving that reasoning?
   - Availability
   - Planning fallacy
   - Sunk cost
   - Anchoring
5. Which practices make a pre-mortem produce useful output rather than a worry list? Select all that apply.
   - For each top failure mode, name the bias that would hide it and one cheap check to run before committing.
   - Run the pre-mortem before the comparison is locked, while checks could still change the outcome.
   - Aim for a long list of abstract worries to show thoroughness.
   - Debate and rebut each failure mode as soon as it is raised.
   - Write failure modes silently before anyone speaks, so the loudest voice does not anchor the list.
6. A decision is a two-way door when its ____ cost is low, meaning it can be undone cheaply and quickly.
7. A six-person team spends three weeks comparing note-taking apps for a trial that can be cancelled monthly. What is the best diagnosis and fix?
   - They need a higher confidence bar, around 85 percent, before trying the app.
   - They over-processed a two-way door; they should time-box the choice and decide with enough evidence to start.
   - They under-processed a one-way door; they should add a pre-mortem and a challenger.
   - They should keep comparing until no uncertainty remains.
8. Take one decision from your project brief. State a confidence range as a number for a specific claim (for example, a date range or a percent chance of an outcome), then explain how you would check whether that range is calibrated.


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## Contents

Part of [🧭 Decision-Making and Autonomy: Trust Your Judgment in the Age of AI](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai.md)

- **🧩 Frame the Decision and Set the Bar**
  - [🔍 Name the Real Decision with Problem Framing](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/name-the-real-decision-with-problem-framing.md)
  - [🎯 Goals, Constraints, and Success Criteria](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/goals-constraints-and-success-criteria.md) (sign-in required)
  - [⚖️ Facts vs Preferences: What Counts as Evidence](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/facts-vs-preferences-what-counts-as-evidence.md)
  - [✅ Checkpoint: Framing and Evidence Sorting](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/checkpoint-framing-and-evidence-sorting.md)
- **🧪 Compare and Stress-Test the Options**
  - [🔀 Opportunity Cost and Side-by-Side Comparison](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/opportunity-cost-and-side-by-side-comparison.md)
  - [🚨 Cognitive Biases and the Pre-Mortem](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/cognitive-biases-and-the-pre-mortem.md)
  - [⏱️ Reversibility, Decision Speed, and Calibrated Confidence](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/reversibility-decision-speed-and-calibrated-confidence.md)
  - [✅ Checkpoint: Choosing Under Uncertainty](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/checkpoint-choosing-under-uncertainty.md) — this lesson
- **🔁 Use AI, Decide, and Review the Outcome**
  - [🤖 AI as a Question Generator, Not an Authority](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/ai-as-question-generator-not-an-authority.md)
  - [📋 Post-Decision Reviews: Process Over Outcome](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/post-decision-reviews-process-over-outcome.md)
  - [🛠️ Project: Build a Decision Brief with Pre-Mortem and Review Plan](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/project-build-decision-brief-with-premortem-and-review-plan.md) (premium content)
  - [✅ Checkpoint: AI Use and Decision Review](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/checkpoint-ai-use-and-decision-review.md) (premium content)
- [Course cheatsheet](https://everwise.study/courses/decision-making-and-autonomy-trust-your-judgment-in-the-age-of-ai/cheatsheet.md) (premium content)